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Some Problems in the Near Future Herman Kahn 1.
Greater opportunities for blackmail, revenge, terrorism, and other mischief-making.
In a world which is armed to its teeth with nuclear weapons, every quarrel or difference of opinion may lead to violence of a kind quite different from what is possible today.
Today there are technical problems in rapidly escalating problems of mobilization, transportation, logistics, etc.
This time and effort means that there are built-in safety features on the use or threat of violence.
In the future these technical constraints may disappear.
Even a relatively innocuous quarrel over fishing rights could involve the early use of a nuclear weapon or two as a demonstration the literal modern equivalent of a shot across the bow.
It is not unreasonable to believe that every so often someone would miscalculate in this game of chicken and actually unleash a nuclear war.
I have already mentioned an increased tendency to play the game of chicken and some of the increased risks to source players.
An irresponsible, desperate, or determined decision maker might not waste time on the lower rungs of the escalation ladder.
He might simply launch a disarming attack on his victim and present the world with a fait accompli.
Even if the potential victim has a nuclear capability, it may not have enough second-strike capability to deter such an attack.
While the other nations are interwetten 150€ bonus to be indignant, they are not likely to start a nuclear war to avenge an accomplished fact.
The attacker might even use the attacked nation as a hostage to prevent effective reprisals.
Sometimes an aggressor may not even need to launch his attack.
He might merely launch an ultimatum.
In many circumstances this will force the other side to choose between backing down or launching an attack bet home bonus code 2019 />Both courses may be dangerous, but a competent aggressor should be able to make the second look worse; between accommodation and thermonuclear war, most will choose accommodation.
Therefore, it should not surprise us if such choices are manufactured.
Where opportunities for gain are large in the event of extremely aggressive behavior, some nations will choose to indulge in such behavior.
A world armed with nuclear weapons would provide a fertile field for paranoiacs, megalomaniacs, and indeed all kinds of fanatics.
Pressure to preempt because of points one and two.
To the extent that the aggressive behavior described above might actually occur, one could reasonably expect decision makers, at whom it might be directed, to note that they risk disaster by not acting, and therefore to note the importance of acting first.
While few would wish to be either executioner or victim, most would prefer the first role to the second.
There would also be greater pressure toward psychological and political preemption.
Tendencies to neglect conventional military capabilities.
This is bet home bonus code 2019 notwithstanding what could well be their realization that they might be unwilling to use their nuclear capabilities in a crisis, and so must either wage an inadequate conventional war or issue rather weak threats in that direction.
This tendency to neglect conventional military capabilities may well create many kinds of instabilities and opportunities for bluff, counterbluff, or actual attacks that could result in defeat or escalation.
Greater danger of inadvertent war.
The possibility of inadvertent war would no doubt increase not only because there would be many more weapons and missiles bonus issues in near future, but because there will be many more organizations in existence, each with different standards of training, organization, and degrees of responsibility.
The possibility of unauthorized behavior, irresponsibility, misunderstanding of orders, or lax discipline inevitably increases.
Mistakes can occur and the probability of most mistakes would increase if the military or political organization were weak or slipshod.
To be sure, a mistake need not set off a large-scale chain reaction.
In fact, every small war or accident would bring pressures to reform the system, pressures that are likely to spur a relatively peaceful evolution out of the current system of bonus issues in near future anarchy.
Hopefully, nations will refuse to accept a situation in which nuclear accidents actually do occur, and, if at all possible, they will do something to correct a system which makes them likely.
Even in a world that is much less dangerous than the one I have been describing, there will be both responsible and irresponsible peace and accommodation movements.
It will instead invite blackmail and deception by the government which is in better control of its people, and irresponsible rigidity or destabilizing weakness by the government which cannot manipulate its people.
Organized political life may be threatened even more gravely.
Their threat might activate less pacific groups which in turn might encourage governments to practice a rigid despotism in an attempt to prevent even small military or political groups from obtaining and using weapons either for protest or for revolutionary purposes.
And, eventually, even the best of safeguards may fail.
Diffusion of nuclear weapons to irresponsible private organizations.
To the extent that these advanced weapons or their components are treated as articles of commerce, perhaps for peaceful uses as in the Plowshare program, their cost would be well within the resources available to many large private organizations.
Almost any dedicated or fanatic member of the middle class of any advanced nation could save up all or an appreciable fraction of this sum.
More complicated future problems of control.
Once weapons are allowed to become widely diffused, it becomes much more difficult to work out methods of arms control.
Moreover, even if some serious crisis leads to a general agreement to prevent the use or threat of nuclear weapons in the future, it is likely to be harder to ratify and implement such an agreement once nuclear weapons have spread.
The small powers would then have to be asked to accept a reduction in their current capability rather than simply to abstain from acquiring weapons.
Of course, if the control measures were sufficiently complete, it might be that all nations could be treated equally.
Even then it would be difficult if not impossible to get all of them to junk their nuclear weapons systems peacefully.
As our experience with France has shown, it can even be quite difficult to induce a nation to acquiesce in controls that would prevent its acquisition of such systems and it will be even harder to find, or even estimate, the size of hidden stocks which would be a nucleus around which future arms control violators could base their conspiracy.
Therefore, when a nation wants to be aggressive it usually needs an excuse to make its aggression seem defensive or, at least, very special and limited.
It is, after all, almost impossible for a large power to make a small power look so provocative as to justify an attack.
Thus it becomes easier for the large power to arrange for, or to counterfeit, the firing of a nuclear missile by the small power.
This incident then could be used to justify all kinds of ultimatums, or actual reprisals, up to and including the forceable disarming of the small power.
If the arranged incident has been successfully and imaginatively staged, many will applaud the punishment of the small power which had shown itself to be so dangerously irresponsible.
Catalytic and Anonymous War.
The widespread diffusion of nuclear weapons would make many nations able, bonus clube resgate de premios in some cases also create the pressure, to aggravate an on-going crisis, or even touch off a war between two other powers for purposes of their own.
Here again the situation is so complicated that one must construct and consider many scenarios to get a feeling for the many possibilities.
However, even without systematic exploration one can list dangerous possibilities for anonymous mischief-making by third parties who control nuclear weapons.
If a nation finds two of its cities destroyed by missiles from Polaris type submarines, how is it to react?
Presumably it continue reading be impossible to tell which of several nations was responsible.
Moreover if any one nation was the obvious candidate, it might make it all the less dangerous for a third power to launch its attack.
Fortunately, although we may not have unlimited time before our system reaches the breaking point, we may have thirty or forty years.
Over the continue reading three decades, China and Russia have developed an increasingly close military relationship built on arms bet home bonus code 2019, joint military exercises.
Trump should keep the pressure up until a deal is reached or it becomes clear Pyongyang will not yield.
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A bonus is always welcome.
So, it seems, is a.
Giving bonus shares is one of the ways companies bet home bonus code 2019 investors without disturbing their cash balances.
Sanjiv Bajaj, MD, Bajaj Capital, says, "One way of rewarding shareholders is to give dividend.
Another is by giving bonus shares and capitalising reserves.
Data analysed by Money Today over a 10-year period shows that in most cases, the stock price of a company rises after a bonus issue.
Our analysis is split into two parts - first, the movement in share price from the time the issue is announced till the record date, and second, one year after the record date.
Of the top 30 companies which announced bonus issues between January 2001 and July 2010 the share price of 21 companies rose till the record date.
Also, stocks of 24 bonus brasil 08006 rose in the year after the record date.
What You Get Bonus shares are shares given to existing stockholders in proportion to the number of shares they hold.
A 1:1 bonus means that a shareholder will get one share for each share held by him.
For example, if someone is holding 10 shares, he will get 10 more.
The shareholders do not pay anything for these shares.
MUST READ: To give bonus shares to investors, a company builds a reserve by retaining a part of its profit over the years the part that is not paid as dividend.
When these free reserves increase, the company transfers a part of the money into the capital account, from which it issues bonus shares.
Only fully paid-up shares are eligible for bonus.
Price Adjustment Usually, after the bonus issue, the share price of the company gets adjusted according to the bonus ratio.
Impact on Price Our analysis also shows that there is high chance a stock will rise after bonus issues in near future record date.
However, experts have mixed views on this.
MUST READ: Mehul Ashar, president-head, wealth management, Inventure Growth and Securities, says, "A bonus issue is generally perceived to be positive by investors and creates more demand for the stock.
If in the following year, the company increa-ses its earning and maintains the earning per share EPS at levels estimated by the management, the stock will give good returns.
Prakash Diwan, head-institutional clients group, Asit C Mehta Investment, says, "Mostly, healthy companies go for bonus issues.
There is high chance of the stock price rising in the couple of quarters after the record date.
Kaushik Dani, head-equity, Bonus issues in near future MF, says, "A company issues bonus shares when it has bright prospects and thus does not mind diluting capital.
It increases liquidity and retail participation.
From the date of announcement till the record date, their share prices declined 21 per cent, 4 per cent and https://us-park.info/bonus/baccarat-bonus.html per cent, respectively.
During one year after the record date, they fell 72 per cent, 19 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively.
Alex Mathews, research head, Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services, says, "The announcement of bonus shares has no affect on share price.
After the announcement, the stock can move in either direction depending on the market sentiment.
However, bonus shares help increase liquidity in the stock," he says.
Recently, Ashok Leyland, Titan Industries and Bhuwalka Bet home bonus code 2019 Industries offered bonus shares to investors, resulting in a rise in prices.
The share prices of Ashok Leyland, Titan Industries and Bhuwalka Steel jumped around bet home bonus code 2019 per cent, 9 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, from the date of announcement till the record date.
Ex Bonus: It means after the record date.
It bonus issues in near future the date on which the share price is adjusted on stock exchanges according to the bonus ratio 2.
Record Date: The cut-off date fixed by a company to determine who is eligible to get bonus shares.
You get the benefit only if you have shares in your demat account on this date Should You Buy?
If you want to buy shares of companies which are going to announce bonus issues, hold on.
One should not buy purely on the basis of expected bonus shares unless one is certain about the fundamentals of the company.
Rajesh Jain, executive vice president and head of retail research, Religare Securities, says, "A bonus issue is a sign the company is expanding equity and increasing liquidity, but it is not the only indicator of performance.
Investors should take a decision after analysing the fundamentals of the company.
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Bonus shares bonanza by two dozen companies this year As many as 21 companies including Infosys, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Federal Bank have announced bonus issues in the last four-and-half months email this article Message: Recipients' Email: Type address separated by commas Your Email: Enter the characters shown in the image.
Send me a copy: At a time when analysts are concerned about the weak financial performance of India Inc in the recently-concluded quarter, companies have been rewarding shareholders by announcing handsome bonus issues.
Thus far in calendar year 2015 Bet home bonus code 2019as many as 21 companies, including Kotak Mahindra Bank, Infosys, and Tech Mahindra have announced bonus issues in the past four and a half months, with five of them making such announcements this month.
The bonus issuance has almost doubled, compared to the previous year.
According to CapitalinePlus data, 11 companies had made announcements during see more same period in 2014.
Of these 21 companies, nine firms that announced their March quarter results have reported an average single digit growth in net profit.
The aggregate net profit of the nine firms increased eight per cent to Rs 5,816 crore in the March 2015 quarter against Rs 5,373 crore in the same quarter in the previous year.
On Monday, Federal Bank, Bonus issues in near future Footwears and SRS announced bonus shares.
Last week, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Lancor Holdings announced bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1 each.
Shivam Autotech board will meet on May 18 to consider issuance of bonus bonus issues in near future to equity shareholders of the company.
Infosys, HCL Technolo-gies, Tech Mahindra and Persistent Systems from the information technology IT sector have recommended bonus shares to their existing shareholders.
All these four companies announced bonus issue in the ratio of 1:1.
According to Jaganna-dham Thunuguntla, head of fundamental research at Karvy, issue of bonus shares is a mechanism of utilising the reserves.
He says that whenever a company has bet home bonus code 2019 profits, it can reward the shareholders by issuing bonus shares.
One, this is a reward to the shareholders for staying invested in the company.
On IT companies, Bodke feels most companies have a large cash holding and are waiting for inorganic growth opportunity.
Then there are demands that the company either buy back the shares from the shareholders liberally.
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